Analysis of Primary Home Sales Data for February 2011
Released 15 March 2011
By OrangeTee Research & Consultancy
Primary home sales fell to 1,101 units in February 2011
Developers sold a total of 1,101 private residential units in February according to the latest URA data. This is a 7.4% m-o-m decrease in volume compared with the 1,189 units sold in January. This decline was contributed largely by the lack of major launches in the month and due to the cooling measures announced in January. Projects in Outside of Central Region continues to dominate sales. Median prices islandwide has fallen by 7.7% on average, compared to a 1.8% increase in the previous month.
Best selling projects
Waterfront Isle (99-year leasehold, 561units), My Manhattan (99-year leasehold, 301units) and Canberra Residences (99-year leasehold, 320units) were the best selling private residential projects in February. Waterfront Isle sold 282 units (of 350 units launched) in the month at a median price of $997psf. My Manhattan, sold 69 units (150 units) at a median price of $1,219psf, and Canberra Residences sold 59 units (320 units) with no additional units launched in the month at a median price of $819psf.
More new launches expected
We expect March to be a slower month for sales as the underlying external events are likely to lead to developers deferring their launches. However, we expect April sales to pick up as developers are expected to release more projects for sale ahead of the Government’s Land Sales Programme announcement for the 2H2011 (which is expected in late May or early June). We expect buyers’ responses to remain positive for projects that are not priced at new benchmark levels.
Limited downside to prices if economic growth continues
The key downside risk is that the impact of the earthquake in Japan as well as the political and social turmoil in the Gulf region if prolonged could trigger a downward revision of Singapore’s economic growth. Barring that, going into 2011, we maintain our view that property prices are likely to trade within a tight band from current levels. However, property prices are unlikely to be depressed on a prolonged basis if the economy continues to perform well and credit remains cheap.
Key Statistics by Region
Overall median prices decreased by 7.7% m-o-m
Overall median prices fell by 7.7% m-o-m, in comparison to the 1.8% increase in the previous month. Median prices in the Core Central Region (CCR) fell by 15.7% while median prices in the Rest of Central Region (RCR) and Outside of Central Region (OCR )increased by 8.6% and 2.1% respectively. The noticable dip in prices in the CCR is mainly contributed by the lack of new launches in region, with the majority of the units sold below the $2,000psf price mark.
Price gap between different segments narrowing
The price gap between new projects in the RCR and OCR compared with prices in the CCR is now at 22% and 24% respectively, which is far below the historical average of 38% and 54% over the past 4 years. This indicates that prices in the CCR has substantial potential to surpass its current prices.
Surge in sales in OCR in February
The proportion of units sold in the OCR has surpassed two-thirds (67%) of total sales in February from the 49% in the previous month. This is mainly attributed to the overwhelming response at Waterfront Isle(99 year leasehold, 561 units) where over 80% of the units launched (350 units) were sold at a median price of $997psf. Sales in OCR is expected to continue to dominate sales in the coming months.
Sales from the top 3 best selling projects make up of 37% (410 units) of total sales in the month. The strong sales at the top selling projects displays continual demand for well-located projects and projects with unique attributes. We also expect the projects in the OCR to continue to draw interest as more projects will be launched in the coming months.